So I dropped the ball this week. Or, more accurately, worked and vacationed and opted not to bring a laptop, as relaxing was nice for a change. But one of the nice things about using data to make predictions is that you can go back and see how you would have done even after the results are out. So, parsing the numbers for last week, the predictions owuld have been as such...
Salt Lake City and Dallas draw
Montreal and Portland draw
New York beats New England by two goals
Philadelphia and San Jose draw
DC beats Houston by one goal
Vancouver and Columbus draw
Chicago and Seattle draw
Salt Lake City beats Toronto by two goals
Chivas and Colorado draw
LA beats Dallas by two goals
And then we can even do a quick look back and compare. The predictions went 4/9, with nothing completely wrong this week. On the season, the model is 35/71, so 49% accurate. Again, not great, but about on par with what MLS "experts" are doing. So I'm still pretty content with it.
Updated power rankings and such to come later.
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
How right (and wrong) you are
So once more let's look at how the season is shaping up according to fan expectations. I noticed that the FPP ratings I had for last week included Week 5. Since betting has just started on Week 6 I'm not going to update that yet. We'll take another look next week after the action.
For now, let's look at the predicted table versus the actual table and see who we've got figured out and who continues to surprise.
Once more the big surprise of the season is LA. After watching them play in person on Saturday thought, I'm ready to say that they're not just underperforming, but are, in fact, over rated this season. Maybe it's Omaz Gonzalez missing or maybe it's having a third of your team practiving somewhere else during preseason, but this is not the 2011 Galaxy by a long long ways. Of course, as an SKC fan, I know how much the season can change over the course of a month or two...
Portland I'm having a harder time figuring out. They seem to have developed a good team and a good identity, but as of late they're playing like an expansion team. Dropping 2 goals and losing a match to Chivas USA isn't going to cut it. Can't wait to see them in Portland in two weeks though, should be a blast.
I don't really want to talk about Toronto. No on wants to talk about Toronto. The less said the better. Until they get Frings back they're basically a tire fire.
On the flip side we see New England on the up and up. Who would have thought they'd blow out LA in LA? I personally sort of like the Revs, and their fans deserve something to cheer about after putting up with the Krafts.
Houston's expectations are obviously down due to their long road stretch before their name home is complete, but they're already doing better on the road than SKC did last year. I know everyone is talking SKC and New York for the East, but be mindful of Houston, they're going to have a glut of home games in the second half of the season, and I expect their new home to be a fort.
And I don't even know where to start with Chivas except that I'm happy that they're the better team in LA. I'd love to see the Goats eliminiate the Gals from playoff contention this year, and I'm glad Ryan Smith seems to have found his feet without snapping his ankle off. I kid, I kid...
And I guess I'll mention SKC is performing a bit better than people thought. I think everyone thought they'd be good. I'm not sure anyone expected they'd be this good. Of course everyone is still going on about how they haven't been tested yet (and I sort of agree, LA at home was no test at all), but with RSL coming to town we're about to find out. This one should have been the ESPN game, especially if some of the bad blood from last season carries over. Watch Roger Espinoza and Kyle Beckerman. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a pair of ejections.
For now, let's look at the predicted table versus the actual table and see who we've got figured out and who continues to surprise.
| Team | Predicated Points | Actual Points | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Portland | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Toronto | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Seattle | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Chicago | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Dallas | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Vancouver | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Montreal | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Columbus | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| New York | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| Salt Lake City | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| DC | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| Colorado | 7 | 9 | -2 |
| San Jose | 9 | 12 | -3 |
| Kansas City | 11 | 15 | -4 |
| Chivas | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| Houston | 1 | 6 | -5 |
| New England | 0 | 6 | -6 |
Once more the big surprise of the season is LA. After watching them play in person on Saturday thought, I'm ready to say that they're not just underperforming, but are, in fact, over rated this season. Maybe it's Omaz Gonzalez missing or maybe it's having a third of your team practiving somewhere else during preseason, but this is not the 2011 Galaxy by a long long ways. Of course, as an SKC fan, I know how much the season can change over the course of a month or two...
Portland I'm having a harder time figuring out. They seem to have developed a good team and a good identity, but as of late they're playing like an expansion team. Dropping 2 goals and losing a match to Chivas USA isn't going to cut it. Can't wait to see them in Portland in two weeks though, should be a blast.
I don't really want to talk about Toronto. No on wants to talk about Toronto. The less said the better. Until they get Frings back they're basically a tire fire.
On the flip side we see New England on the up and up. Who would have thought they'd blow out LA in LA? I personally sort of like the Revs, and their fans deserve something to cheer about after putting up with the Krafts.
Houston's expectations are obviously down due to their long road stretch before their name home is complete, but they're already doing better on the road than SKC did last year. I know everyone is talking SKC and New York for the East, but be mindful of Houston, they're going to have a glut of home games in the second half of the season, and I expect their new home to be a fort.
And I don't even know where to start with Chivas except that I'm happy that they're the better team in LA. I'd love to see the Goats eliminiate the Gals from playoff contention this year, and I'm glad Ryan Smith seems to have found his feet without snapping his ankle off. I kid, I kid...
And I guess I'll mention SKC is performing a bit better than people thought. I think everyone thought they'd be good. I'm not sure anyone expected they'd be this good. Of course everyone is still going on about how they haven't been tested yet (and I sort of agree, LA at home was no test at all), but with RSL coming to town we're about to find out. This one should have been the ESPN game, especially if some of the bad blood from last season carries over. Watch Roger Espinoza and Kyle Beckerman. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a pair of ejections.
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