#### barf

One more number dump before I call it a night. I should have done this after the last round, but, you know, lazy, beer, etc. etc. So here's how the final rankings for Euro 2012 played out post group stage. I think this is where I'll hang up my numerical cleats as in the knock out rounds anything goes, but for the hell of it we'll use it to prdeict the rest of the tournement.

Team	Ranking	Change	Rating	Change
Spain	1	+1	2.25	0.42
Germany	2	+1	3.25	1.08
Russia	3	-2	4	-2.00
Portugal	4	+2	6.5	1.17
France	5	-1	7	-1.00
Ukraine	6	-1	7.688	-1.35
England	7	+2	8	1.33
Italy	8	+1	8.25	1.08
Sweden	9	-1	8.5	0.50
Czech Republic	10	+1	8.75	0.92
Denmark	11	-4	9.25	-1.25
Croatia	12	-1	10	-0.33
Greece	13	NC	11.25	1.08
Poland	14	NC	13	-0.33
Netherlands	15	+1	14	-0.33
Ireland	15	-1	14	-0.67

So. Prediction time wooooooo!

Portugal over Czech Republic (just happened!)

Spain over France.

Germany over Greece.

England over Italy (I've picked against England so much, now watch this be the one where they lose...)

Which means the next round would be...

Spain over Portugal (should be a great game)

Germany over England

Which sets up...

Spain over Germany. So #1 beating #2. Could it happen? Maybe, but I thought Russia would be there too. But really, who knows, it's been a great set of matches and I'm totally looking forward to the rest of the games.



Captains of the Sky

Man I'm excited for this weekend. Last round and still a lot at stake for a lot of teams, plus evening MLS action? PREPARE YOURSELF FOR SIEGE, LIVER!

Ah hem. At any rate, I once again took a chance to update the Euro rankings. Granted, it's a short tournament, so maybe things should swing more, but the formula I've come up with essentially tracks momentum gradually, which I feel is as important as game to game results. So despite some teams booking a ticket to the next round and some teams booking tickets home, there weren't any crazy swings this week. Russia is still top dog with Spain and Germany close behind, and, a big surprise to me, at least, the French sitting in 4th. Ukraine probably got dealt the biggest blow. Anything but advancing would be horrific for them, in my opinion. And while I'd be surprised if Poland holds on and advances, their showing against Russia was a good one, and they may just have enough to get into the knockouts, where anything can happen.

Actually, now that we're on the topic, the Dutch showing has been the worst performance so far. And I'd like to point out that my formula had sort of predicted that since the pre-Euro rankings. Math wins again!

Here's the table.

Team	Ranking	Change	Rating
Russia	1	NC	2.00
Spain	2	+1	2.67
Germany	3	+1	4.33
France	4	+3	6.00
Ukraine	5	-3	6.33
Portugal	6	+2	7.67
Denmark	7	-2	8.00
Sweden	8	-3	9.00
Italy	9	NC	9.33
England	9	+2	9.33
Croatia	11	-1	9.67
Czech Republic	11	NC	9.67
Greece	13	NC	12.33
Poland	14	+2	12.67
Ireland	15	-1	13.33
Netherlands	16	-1	13.67

Does this mean we can make some predictions? Yes. Yes it does.

The Czech Republic over Poland in a close game, ending Poland's (and my own) hope's for European glory.
Russia over Greece(should be another LeBron style slam dunk)
Portugal over the Netherlands (I'm really excited for Ronaldo vs Robben)
Germany over Denmark (sorry Puma)
Spain over Croatia (is Torres back!?!)
Italy over Ireland (will Balotelli show up? I think some day he's just going to play a game while wearing sunglasses, because fuck you, that's why)
Ukraine over England (again, probably an unpopular pick against an English team with nothing to lose and gaining Rooney)
France over Sweeden (nothing witty to add)

And, finally, props to the Ireland traveling fans. Man I would have loved to have been in the stadium for this.