M^3 (May Man of the Month)

I debated whether or not I wanted to do this now or after the USOC match tonight, but I think I'll drop it now and not consider the USOC match since there's generally no stats to cull from it and at this stage it might get a little lopsided. Plus lots of guys are out on international duty and such and it may not be fair.

Here's the inter-team player ratings for May. Note that this isn't baselined against other players or other teams, just how much each poayer played in May and what their contributions were (statistically speaking). So a guy rated below five wasn't neccessarily bad, just had below average contribution to team success this month.

With that said, here we go.

Ike Opara nearly steals it from Zusi, but Graham comes out on top, playing in 427 minutes and notching a goal and two assists and generally playing exceptionally well, earning an unsuurprising callup for the USMNT. Congrats, Graham. I really need to get a better photo...

So you're gonna play in MLS (Part 2 : The bloodening)

So we figured out (very very very very very roughly) how much you're gonna get paid after you get drafted. But maybe you don't care about money. You're a soccer player, dammit, you wanna know how much time you're actually gonna play.

Well I've got news for you buddy, we can math that up quick too. Unfortunatly, though, the picture is even less clear for a playimg time relation as it is for salary.

Of course its a little intuitive. Generally speaking, the higher you were drafted, the more you'll play, but oddly, playing time seems to peak around pick #10 instead of pick #1. Could that be because the first picks get taken for future potential rather than immediate impact? Could be, could be. Teams may be looking for the GA guys who they can sign without concern for roster space in hopes of getting a god developmental project.

I actually opted to go for a 4th order polynomial here, largely to get the shape looking about right. The big throw off were keeper Ryan Meara and defender Ray Gaddis. I think the hump can account for at least Meara. Keepers getting picked late is no surprise. Gaddis was probably the "steal" of the draft as far as salary and playing time go. Who knows what he'll develope into though.

Anyway, here's the chart.

So there you have it. Again, you're probably gonna see minutes if you wind up in the top 15 picks or so, but beyound that, while all hope is not lost, there are definitely outliers, it looks like you may need to wait a year before breaking into the starting XI.

So you're gonna play in MLS.

Congratulations and I'm sorry.

Mostly just congratulations though. You've just been drafted. Awesome news! Time to start apartment hunting in your brand new town. So what's your budget? How much is your contract worth? Is it related to your draft position?

Why yes. Of course it is. That's why this post exists in the first place.

To help you out I took at look back at the last 3 years of the MLS SuperDraft (it's SuperDrafty in here) and plotted players selection order against their salary for that year, and boy is it a pretty graph. Take a look!

Not surprisingly, looks like the salary drops off in relation to draft order. Perhaps slightly upsetting is just how fast it drops off. Even before you've gotten below #10 we're already below six figures. The good news is it does look like it flattens out to a guarenteed salary pretty quickly! The bad news is, it bottoms out at the minimum wage.....

If you wanted to crank out your predicted salary by hand, you can! The formula would be this

Salary = -38,501 * ln(Draft Position) + $177,075

So let's just say you are, perhaps, SKCs new addition, Mikey Lopez. At #14, you're predicted starting salary would be $70,039.45. Not bad!

In actuality, if you've got a Generation Adidas contract you'll probably do a bit better than average. Without, perhaps a bit worse.

For reference, the average salary of an MLS draftee is $68,668.68. Lot's of sixes and eights. Nice. Average is a bit misleading though. The median salary paints perhaps a grimmer picture... Only $44,000 per year.

Still though, there's some players who manage to skirt the trend! At #8 in 2010, Dilly Duka pulled in $213,000, beating his predicted salary by $115,985.58.

Of course, on the flip side there's Zach Lloyd, who landed $57,985.03 below his predicted salary after being taken 5th in 2010. So, there's that.

Probably worth mentioning this is three years worth of draft data only and doesn't really try to correct for anything. The two interesting blurbs at the end of the curve are goalies, by the way. Sean Johnson and Brian Perk. Goalies tend to go late though, so that's not entirely news...

Yo're Not in Kansas Anymore

So that was something new and interesting...

First, apologies for not updating this more. Well, not apologies really, work has just been kicking my ass as of late. I've sort of stopped doing weekly predictions since that was the least interesting stat stuff, and because picking the home team is just the safe bet in MLS anyway. But I do want to keep up with power rankings and player ratings.

So I guess maybe first things first. Let's do some player ratings for last night.

 

New York Red Bulls
Bill Gaudette	4.75
Markus Holgersson	4.75
Heath Pearce	4.75
Conor Lade	4.26
Wilman Conde	4.75
Dax McCarty	4.26
Joel Lindpere	4.50
Tim Cahill	4.50
Teemu Taino	4.50
Kenny Cooper	4.26
Sebastian le Toux	4.26
Thierry Henry	4.50
Team Average	4.50
Sporting Kansas City
Jimmy Nilesen	6.24
Aurelien Collin	5.99
Matt Besler	6.98
Seth Sinovic	5.74
Chance Myers	5.50
Lawrence Olum	4.26
Oriol Rosell	4.26
Graham Zusi	5.50
Roger Espinoza	5.25
Julio Cesar	5.25
Paolo Nagamura	5.00
Kei Kamara	5.74
CJ Sapong	5.99
Jacob Peterson	4.26
Team Average	5.42

Not that surprisngly, Mesler get's man of the match, for a solid job on defense and his involvement in the first goal. So congrats to Mr. Matt, well earned and an excellent three points.

I actually think the wins more or less puts us in the playoffs for sure. I don't think it's mathematically certain just yet, but 8 points up on Houston and 9 points up on Columbus means we can skuff two matches while they win and still lead them going into the last few weeks... Of course the shiled is what we want, and Portland helped us out there, but man is San Jose good at scoring goals when they need to.

As far as the trip goes, I had a blast. Only bummed we didn't get to hang out with More New York fans while we were there, everyone I talked to was super nice and welcoming, but for some reason they didn't want us mingling with them pre-game... Go figure.

Poor crowd of course, and I mean, yeah, midweek game, stadium location isn't ideal, Yankees were playing, Bruce Springsteen was in town, blah blah blah. Kansas City fans can't really talk about attendance I guess, except Red Bull Arena is really really nice and the team is actually really really good, despite what the fans keep saying (I really think they expect titles and anything less is failure, which is one way to look at it, I guess... kind of a Yankees mindset that rubs me wrong, but whatever).

I thought the match was well played. Both teams looked good while attacking but New York didn't really have an answer to SKC's high pressure, and their set piece defending was just god awful. Flat footed stuff by everyone.

And then there was this..

Come on New York, you're better than that...

Also there allegedly was an Henry head butt? I didn't see it, but there was definitely a scuffle towards the end of the game... Gonna go look at highlights for it. I used to have a lot of respect for him as a plyaer, one of the best in the last decade, but after what he did to Roger a bit ago it's been fading...

Anway, I don't have much to say. Great to see us grab a huge three points, wish I could have stayed on for the Montreal leg.

Here's some photos if that's your thing. I just got a new phone with a great camera so I've been having some fun...