2 a Cer0

In hindsight, that was pretty obvious, huh? Still, I think the US played exactly how they should have (and almost exactly how I drew it up), and I really thought Mexico would come out less toothless and with more fire. A lot of fans and pundits seemed to think the US played poorly during the first 20 minutes, but I really think that was just the storm they knew they were going to have to weather, and Mexico looked just gassed and beaten in the second half, especially after the EJ goal.

Here's a look at Player Ratings for both sides. The only real discrepency I see between my numbers and numbers others have thrown out is Reyes, who Mexico fans seem happy to lay the blame for the goals on, but who, statistically speaking, had a really solid game.

Perhaps Donovan was just lucky that EJ found his ball and that he was in the right space at the right time, but he had a typical Donovan v Mexico game and earned Man of the Match from me on this one.

I also iterated the Group Power Rankigns again. Here's the table.

And now, the chart. Mexico dipping fast, Panama on the slight upturn. Still a theoretical gap between the two sides though... Click to embiggen.

Right now, though they're ranked 4th overall in the group on quality using my spreadsheet system, have slipped to dead last on recent performance.

So where does this result leave Mexico? In pretty bad shape, actually. It's now a real stretch for them to hit the auto spot, and they're actually going to need to beat Panama at home. If Panama can do what other teams have done at Azteca and play smart, staying compact defensively and smart going forward, Mexico could be in serious trouble. Missing the World Cup would be devasting for them. I would love it.

And we'll go out  with this. Classic.

Dos a cero o Cinco a cero?

So just some quick musings here so I can get everything on paper prior to the match, in order to maintain what little credibility I have (which is 0, I believe...).

First off, I did just iterate the "Power Rankings" for the Hex I've got. Here's how the table looks.

Team	Rank	Rating
Costa Rica	1	409,091
USA	2	409,091
Honduras	3	346,154
Mexico	4	346,154
Panama	5	204,545
Jamaica	6	183,673

Interestingly, you'll note Costa Rica and the US are tied, while Mexico and Honduras are tied. At this point I don't think there's much question that the US and Costa Rica should hit the auto-qualify spots, the only question may be in what order do they do it.

The bigger race, of course, will be Honduras and Mexico. I think Mexico has the harder schedule, playing teams #1 and #2 away. Sooooo, if we wanted to make predictions, I'd go out and say that Costa Rica, the US, and Honduras auto-advance and Mexico wins up in the #4 spot playing (and probably beating) New Zealand.

The bigger pill, of course, is the falling of Mexico. Now, is a weak Mexico good for CONCACAF? Objectively, I'd argue no, we want a Federation full of strong teams and with 4 slots to potentially fill, I think Mexico has a much better chance of beating New Zealand than either Panamda or Jamaica. But as a USMNT? Let Mexico crash and burn. That's what a rivarly is.

He's a chart illustrating performance over the last 7 matches. Actually goes back a little further than that, including qualifying in past rounds and Gold Cup performances. Basically, this is rankings over the last 9 "ranking periods", covering a total of 13 games played.

 

 

And now the fun stuff. Tonight I think I want to see the US play tight, compact, and defensive. We don't need a win here, and with injuries and suspensions I don't want to see us playing risky. We'll be in our own house and should be able to dictate the game somewhat. Mexico is the one who needs to come in and get a result. I'm always weary of teams who recently fire their coaches, as they seem to have a great first "prove yourself" match afterwards (see Columbus v Houston for a great recent example).

 

Mexico is a dangerous team and their lack of results I think has been more teams coming and taking a cuatious approach at Azteca rather then actual poor performance. The US was hammered while away in Mexico and, honestly, a bit lucky to escape with a point. Turn that draw into a Mexico win and I bet the Hex looks a whole lot different today. 10 games isn't a lot.

 

So, yes, I'm advocating we get back to "Bruce-ball" or "Bradley-ba;;", stay tight and compact in the middle, keep numbers behind the ball, and pick moments for a fast counter against a Mexico team that's really going to need to come in and play open. Heat could be a factor as well. A second half couner running at tired Mexican legs could well be the winner.

 

My prediction?

 

A gritty 1-1 draw, which will almost be enough to get the US auto-in.

 

Isntant-Classico? I doubt it. But these games are always fun.



Ranking the Hex

So I tried doing this for the Euro teams last year, and it worked pretty well. At least, it was no worse than what most folks were putting out for the teams, and did a good job of calling out the Dutch team prior to their collapse, so I thought I'd try it again.

What I tried to do is use results from the Group Stage and now the Hex to rate teams in the same way I do for MLS games and see what comes out. I think it's actually done a pretty good job of establishing how each team has been performing and maybe some inkling on how teams are trending.

Here are the raw numbers as they stand today.

Now I know you may be thinking that, with Mexico's struggles, they should perhaps be lower. The thing to remember is this is looking at five game form and goes back to the First six games played prior to the Hex, where Mexico tore it up. You can probably see their recent poor form better if I graphed up ratings for the first five rating points.



You can clearly see Mexico's struggles sinec the Hex began, and how the group has atually goten pretty tight as of the last set of matches. Do we want to try to predict results for the next set of games? Sure, why not.

Mexico beats Jamaica in Jamaica

Honduras beats Costa Rica in Costa Rica

The USA beats Jamaica in Jamaica

Mexico beats Panama in Panama.

I dunno. They'll probably all be draws. Don't blame me, I just work here.

Benny and the nets

I'll say it. That was probably the best performance I've seen a Kansas City team turn in in years. End to end, total domination. The 2-0 score line was generous and the only thing I have to say negatively about a player is Biler should have had a hat trick. But that's the Kansas City team I think we all wanted to see and Montreal was utterly swarmed and devoured. And in the player ratings this week, it actually shows.

Here's how everyone fared.

Much love for Zusi and Besler, but Benny had a monster of a game, unlocking Montreal with some great through balls and playing lights out against everyone. I think a lot of people had been skeptical of him, myself included, but if he keeps playing like that the rest of the season, he may see a lot more time with the USMNT in qualifying. I'd love to see it. What I'm not loving seeing is that moustache... eek.

Edit - and now, for some match day photos. I really need a better camera...

So, how bout them gnats?

Well, I never thought I'd live to see that... okay, that's not true. I thought someday I'd see the US get another result from Azteca. I was around in 1997, but I wasn't really following soccer much, despite playing in high school. Well, riding the bench in higschool. Shut up.

Anyway, I'm not shocked that the US got a point from Mexico, but I am really, really glad it happened.

I won't go into a lot of detail here, but Dan Loney, love him or hate him, nailed it, I think.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/soccer/dan-loney/2013/03/27/stolen-one-point-last-seen-fleeing-mexico-city/

In the mean time, I decided this would be a good time to actually dig a little bit into stats. Awesomely, MLSsoccer.com provided the Opta stats and chalkboard for this match, so I crunched the numbers to come up with ratings, much the same way I've been doing for SKC. Here's what the performances for each team looked like.

Maybe a little surprising to see Cameron ranked higher than Besler, but other than that, I think the ratings play out well. Great game from Gonzalez and maybe, just maybe, new CB pairing for the US has been found. Mexico with the slight edge ratings wise, which should be expected. In all honesty, they really took it to the US and were unlucky not to get the Edu penalty call (I think the Bradley "push" in the first 10 minutes was the correct non-call, hand checking a runner off the ball who goes down easy shouldn't be a PK that early in the match).

And still, a point from Azteca, while rare, shoudln't be cause for full blown celebration. This isn't the prize. The US is still only sitting on 4 points from 3 games, with 7 to go. I've seen 16 as the magic number, which would mean the US needs 4 wins from 7 games. With 5 at home, that's gotta be seen as doable, but at this pace the US is looking at aboiut 13-14 projected points. The next home match is going to be big. Bigger than this all told.

However, the best part about beating (edit - well, drawing... okay, now I've fallen into the "US beats Mexico 0-0" trap...) Mexico, in Mexico, is it takes away another home game of theirs and now might force them to get some road results, something very hard to do in CONCACAF.

I've been very skeptical/critical of Klinsman, but every time I'm ready to write me off, he pulls me back in. I really hope he proves me wrong this cycle.