Friday, January 18, 2013

So you're gonna play in MLS (Part 2 : The bloodening)

So we figured out (very very very very very roughly) how much you're gonna get paid after you get drafted. But maybe you don't care about money. You're a soccer player, dammit, you wanna know how much time you're actually gonna play.

Well I've got news for you buddy, we can math that up quick too. Unfortunatly, though, the picture is even less clear for a playimg time relation as it is for salary.

Of course its a little intuitive. Generally speaking, the higher you were drafted, the more you'll play, but oddly, playing time seems to peak around pick #10 instead of pick #1. Could that be because the first picks get taken for future potential rather than immediate impact? Could be, could be. Teams may be looking for the GA guys who they can sign without concern for roster space in hopes of getting a god developmental project.

I actually opted to go for a 4th order polynomial here, largely to get the shape looking about right. The big throw off were keeper Ryan Meara and defender Ray Gaddis. I think the hump can account for at least Meara. Keepers getting picked late is no surprise. Gaddis was probably the "steal" of the draft as far as salary and playing time go. Who knows what he'll develope into though.

Anyway, here's the chart.

So there you have it. Again, you're probably gonna see minutes if you wind up in the top 15 picks or so, but beyound that, while all hope is not lost, there are definitely outliers, it looks like you may need to wait a year before breaking into the starting XI.

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