Ahead of the curve

So the next month and a half is gonna be rough for me and the dear old spreadsheet. I'll be gone four of the next five weeks, though one of the weeks is Vegas with the wife and the other is gonna be in New York where I'll be able to catch the SKC-NYRB match, so not all bad. Just get the feeling that this guy isn't going to be as up to date as I'd like.

So, with that in mind, and the fact that there's a game tomorrow, I got a head start on predictions for the week. It's only based on 8 submissions right now, I usually like to have at least 10, but it doesn't look that crazy and there's not too much variability, so let's go to the board and see what we've got.

Well, first, in retrospect, another not great week for picks. We're now at 102 right out of 221 for 46.2%. The only expert close is at 100 right out of 221, so we're still slightly ahead of MLS writers picks. MLS teams are 119/221 in home games so still a lot of ground to make up before we beat that number.

Now, here's the weekly picks.

Team	Result	GD	Confidence
LA	WIN	2	80.57%
Columbus	LOSS	-2	80.57%
Toronto	WIN	2	65.85%
Portland	LOSS	-2	65.85%
Vancouver	WIN	2	100.00%
Dallas	LOSS	-2	100.00%
Seattle	WIN	2	100.00%
Vancouver	LOSS	-2	100.00%
Toronto	LOSS	-2	69.41%
Kansas City	WIN	2	69.41%
Montreal	DRAW	0	91.98%
San Jose	DRAW	0	91.98%
Chicago	WIN	2	75.96%
New England	LOSS	-2	75.96%
Salt Lake City	WIN	3	100.00%
Dallas	LOSS	-3	100.00%
Colorado	DRAW	0	52.11%
Chivas	DRAW	0	52.11%
DC	WIN	2	100.00%
Phildelphia	LOSS	-2	100.00%
New York	WIN	3	100.00%
Portland	LOSS	-3	100.00%
Houston	WIN	3	83.46%
Columbus	LOSS	-3	83.46%

Explorers

A day late on this one. I blame work. And laziness. So both sides of the work spectrum, I guess. Anyway, let's look at some numbers quick.

Coming into this week the pick-o-bot is 92/196 for a correct % of 46.9%. Home teams are at 106/197, so still a bit ahead of me. I don't know what the "experts" picks were like as of late, but I'm not gonna go look it up just now anyway.

Oh, okay, yes I will. The best expert is 88/197. The 197 number includes the RSL game, which I didn't get in in time, but did pick corret. We'll account for that next week. Here's the numbers for Week 21.

Team	Result	GD	Confidence
Real Salt Lake	WIN	+2	97.65%
Vancouver	LOSS	-2	97.65%
Toronto	WIN	+1	92.67%
Houston	LOSS	-1	92.59%
Montreal	DRAW	0	89.44%
New York	DRAW	0	89.44%
Dallas	DRAW	0	52.68%
LA	DRAW	0	52.68%
Kansas City	WIN	+2	95.91%
Columbus	LOSS	-2	95.91%
Colorado	DRAW	0	76.99%
Seattle	DRAW	0	76.99%
San Jose	WIN	+3	100.00%
Chicago	LOSS	-3	100.00%
Portland	WIN	+1	80.82%
Chivas	LOSS	-1	80.82%
Philadelphia	WIN	+2	93.98%
New England	LOSS	-2	93.98%

Let's get this over with

Throwing out some picks to get it over with. Don't really know what I'm gonna do for the game tonight. Watch party? Suffer quitely in the office with the lights out? Lug the computer out to the living room and watch on TV? Huddle under the bed sheets with a twitter?

Anyway, pick-o-bot is 81/171 (47.4%) on the season, still slightly better than the MLS experts. The home side has won 87/171 (50.9%), so still better to pick the home side. Here's the picks. Looks to be a dull week in MLS, except for Colorado beating down Dallas and a good NY-Seattle match.

Team	Result	GD	Confidence
Vancouver	DRAW	0	84.62%
Toronto	DRAW	0	84.62%
Philadelphia	WIN	2	86.62%
Montreal	LOSS	-2	86.62%
New England	WIN	2	96.38%
Toronto	LOSS	-2	96.38%
Kansas City	DRAW	0	99.45%
Columbus	DRAW	0	99.45%
Chicago	WIN	2	92.55%
Vancouver	LOSS	-2	92.55%
Colorado	WIN	3	100.00%
Dallas	LOSS	-3	100.00%
San Jose	DRAW	0	84.71%
Salt Lake City	DRAW	0	84.71%
LA	DRAW	0	62.05%
Portland	DRAW	0	62.05%
New York	WIN	1	91.29%
Seattle	LOSS	-1	91.29%
DC	DRAW	0	88.25%
Houston	DRAW	0	88.25%

Harder than it looks

Not a bad week with predictions last week. 8 out of 12, with only one exact wrong. Seasonally we're sitting on 56/119, for 47.1%. I think the best MLS expert is 55/119, so hey, beating the "best", right!? Well, no. Home teams are still winning 51.3% of the time, so at this point, it's still best to just pick the home team to win.

Speaking of which, what's the pick for this week? Just one game, so it better not be wrong...

New England beats Chicago by 2 goals.

There, I said it.