Thursday, April 4, 2013

Ranking the Hex

So I tried doing this for the Euro teams last year, and it worked pretty well. At least, it was no worse than what most folks were putting out for the teams, and did a good job of calling out the Dutch team prior to their collapse, so I thought I'd try it again.

What I tried to do is use results from the Group Stage and now the Hex to rate teams in the same way I do for MLS games and see what comes out. I think it's actually done a pretty good job of establishing how each team has been performing and maybe some inkling on how teams are trending.

Here are the raw numbers as they stand today.

Now I know you may be thinking that, with Mexico's struggles, they should perhaps be lower. The thing to remember is this is looking at five game form and goes back to the First six games played prior to the Hex, where Mexico tore it up. You can probably see their recent poor form better if I graphed up ratings for the first five rating points.

You can clearly see Mexico's struggles sinec the Hex began, and how the group has atually goten pretty tight as of the last set of matches. Do we want to try to predict results for the next set of games? Sure, why not.

Mexico beats Jamaica in Jamaica
Honduras beats Costa Rica in Costa Rica
The USA beats Jamaica in Jamaica
Mexico beats Panama in Panama.

I dunno. They'll probably all be draws. Don't blame me, I just work here.

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