Friday, April 13, 2012

Don't bet on it

Once more we turn the mighty excel spreadsheet (which at this point is getting pretty tab-tastic) towards predicitng the future. Again, these aren't really my predictions. Rather, I'm parsing bets from the Big Soccer WPL game and feeding them into a rather arbitrary formula to try to gauge the results. These predictions are not really my own. I do tend to agree with them, though. I don't think I could do any better, at least.

Thus far this season we're talking about a 52% success rate. It's picked the exact wrong results 18% of the time (i.e. picked Team A to beat Team B when Team B beats Team A) and the rest of the time it's either predicted a draw when the game was won or picked a winner when the game was a draw. But 52% is about on par for most of the MLS experts who do this sort of fortune telling thing. The one thing I think it sorely lacks is the ability to pick upsets, since it's basically a weighted consensus from 30-40 people. But it's done a fair enough job of picking results, and actually I think a pretty good job of predicting draws.

That said, let's look at this weeks action.

The predictions are, in no real order :

Philadelphia and Columbus draw
New England and DC draw
Seattle beats Colorado by 1 goal
Toronto and Chivas draw
New York beats San Jose by 2 goals
Dallas beats Montreal by 2 goals
Kansas City beats Salt Lake City by 1 goal (this one was interesting... everyone was betting low but hedging on SKC)
LA beats Portland by 2 goals (people still believe in LA I guess?)
Chicago and Houston draw.

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