Tuesday, April 10, 2012

How right (and wrong) you are

So once more let's look at how the season is shaping up according to fan expectations. I noticed that the FPP ratings I had for last week included Week 5. Since betting has just started on Week 6 I'm not going to update that yet. We'll take another look next week after the action.

For now, let's look at the predicted table versus the actual table and see who we've got figured out and who continues to surprise.

Team Predicated Points Actual Points Difference
LA 10 3 7
Portland 10 4 6
Toronto 4 0 4
Seattle 10 7 3
Chicago 6 4 2
Philadelphia 2 1 1
Dallas 8 7 1
Vancouver 8 8 0
Montreal 3 4 -1
Columbus 5 6 -1
New York 8 9 -1
Salt Lake City 13 15 -2
DC 3 5 -2
Colorado7 9 -2
San Jose 9 12 -3
Kansas City 11 15 -4
Chivas 2 6 -4
Houston 1 6 -5
New England 0 6 -6

Once more the big surprise of the season is LA. After watching them play in person on Saturday thought, I'm ready to say that they're not just underperforming, but are, in fact, over rated this season. Maybe it's Omaz Gonzalez missing or maybe it's having a third of your team practiving somewhere else during preseason, but this is not the 2011 Galaxy by a long long ways. Of course, as an SKC fan, I know how much the season can change over the course of a month or two...

Portland I'm having a harder time figuring out. They seem to have developed a good team and a good identity, but as of late they're playing like an expansion team. Dropping 2 goals and losing a match to Chivas USA isn't going to cut it. Can't wait to see them in Portland in two weeks though, should be a blast.

I don't really want to talk about Toronto. No on wants to talk about Toronto. The less said the better. Until they get Frings back they're basically a tire fire.

On the flip side we see New England on the up and up. Who would have thought they'd blow out LA in LA? I personally sort of like the Revs, and their fans deserve something to cheer about after putting up with the Krafts.

Houston's expectations are obviously down due to their long road stretch before their name home is complete, but they're already doing better on the road than SKC did last year. I know everyone is talking SKC and New York for the East, but be mindful of Houston, they're going to have a glut of home games in the second half of the season, and I expect their new home to be a fort.

And I don't even know where to start with Chivas except that I'm happy that they're the better team in LA. I'd love to see the Goats eliminiate the Gals from playoff contention this year, and I'm glad Ryan Smith seems to have found his feet without snapping his ankle off. I kid, I kid...

And I guess I'll mention SKC is performing a bit better than people thought. I think everyone thought they'd be good. I'm not sure anyone expected they'd be this good. Of course everyone is still going on about how they haven't been tested yet (and I sort of agree, LA at home was no test at all), but with RSL coming to town we're about to find out. This one should have been the ESPN game, especially if some of the bad blood from last season carries over. Watch Roger Espinoza and Kyle Beckerman. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a pair of ejections.

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