Friday, May 11, 2012

A bowl of petunias

It's Friday (Friday, gotta get down with oh god why am I doing this...) and that means it's time to take another stab at this weekend's matches.

I'd also like to pimp out Alan's updated Elo rankings and season predictions.

When Stats and Soccer Unite

Looks like the home loss hurt us a lot as we drop to second in predicted points. Hard to argue what Seattle is doing isn't impressive though. I still need to make it to a game out there.

Anyway, here's where the numbers work out this week. I should note that for some of the matches the GD prediction probably (definitely, actually) isn't doing what I want it to, but I'm too lazy to fix this week. Short story long, it should be looking at the average bet per player, but since some players miss games or hold out until the last possible moment, it calculates their bet as a zero, which will tend to drag it down. Case in point San Jose should really be at +3 over Chivas all things consdiered. Should be a relatively easy fix, but I've had a long week and don't really much care as the results are the important part.

So, here we go.

Midweek action!

New York beats Houston by a goal. (came true!)
Salt Lake City beats Chicago by a goal. (less true!)
Seattle beats Dallas by a goal (mostly true!)

And now for the weekend.

LA and Montreal draw (a bit surprising to me really).
Houston beats DC by two goals
New England and Vancouver draw
Columbus and Dallas draw
Kansas City beats Chicago by a goal
Seattle beats Salt Lake City by a goal
Philadelphia and New York drawk
San Jose beats Chivas by two goals.

For those keeping track at home, we're now at 47% correct picks. Which is a bit below where I'd like ot be, ultimately, but I also haven't done any tweaking since the start of the season, so I feel good about that. I also feel good that only 11% of matches have been picked entirely wrong (i.e. picked a winner but they lost). So it a team gets picked to win, they're got something like an 89% chance of getting at least a point. Which is nice.

And, finally, here's another picture from last week. So the associated photo for this post changes.

No comments:

Post a Comment